Covid-19 Decisions and Risk Analysis

As of 2023, Covid at least feels like it somehow is “better”. Covid is still around and still affecting kids, but at least the most recent variants seem more mild, and many more of us are vaccinated.

So while many of the themes discussed below might seem outdated, the final decision of how to balance the risk of Covid in your personal social decisions remain mostly up to you.

We all know masks and gloves and distance decrease risk, but it also is very clear to this pediatrician that kids NEED to feel normal, and free and without fears and anxiety. So I err on the side of letting kids play and feel like they are not at a huge risk of covid complications, but that doesn’t mean kids aren’t getting sick, or can’t pass the germ to others who are indeed at high risk.

So continue to lessen the risk as much as you can while trying to support your child’s overall well-being and mental and physical health. I do support vaccines, and my kids are fully vaccinated and boosted. But since kids aren’t having as tough a time fighting the disease, some are opting to wait and watch and not vaccinate.

Older, still somewhat relevant advice from Dr. G:

We are all so worried about the Covid-19 pandemic and the effects on children both medically as well as socially and emotionally.   I follow the news and research carefully, but I would say that with this pandemic, all the information is being released to the public in real time.  And while I want to always be your medical expert, and consultant on all topics related to health,  I don’t think there is that much that I know about Covid-19 that you haven’t heard.  

The effects on society have been devastating in so many ways.  Young children on the whole have been doing well in fighting and beating the medical battle against Covid-19, but we all learned that some get an inflammatory syndrome after the initial battle, called MIS-C.  This remains very rare, but it factors in to all of our decision making.

During full lockdown, and 100% quarantine, at least the answers were clear – just avoid everything and everyone at all costs.  But now that numbers are looking “better”, there are so many families asking what is safe and how to decide what is too risky or unsafe.

There is no easy answer to how to allow children to interact with other children safely.  You have heard about states “opening up” and then sometimes cases increase.  You have heard about pods people create to try to limit germs, but allow for some socialization.  Kids are indeed so resilient, and they will get through this and rebound and flourish.  But how much should their socialization and emotional needs factor in when deciding what is safe enough.  

How does a parent decide on whether to allow their child to play, or go to school, or attend daycare, or go to a store with you or even see other extended family members.   There are so many complex factors here, as kids can get it, and spread it to others including teachers and grandparents and those in high risk categories.

How will vaccines help?  I am confident they have and will.  But no vaccine is 100% protective, and variants may indeed be somewhat resistant to some vaccines.  Research will show when the vaccine will be approved and released for each age range, and from what I know so far, the results look very promising – but again, nothing is perfect.  I do support vaccinating all ages, and my kids have all their covid shots/boosters, so I do strongly encourage you to have your children vaccinated.

I support your decision making, and it has always been my belief that if there is a clear medical answer I will provide it.  But in this case there are too many factors for me to weigh in heavily and influence your decision.  It is easy enough for me to just say don’t do anything that increases risk.   But we all decide on our risk tolerance, and weigh all the pro’s and con’s.   That goes for taking kids to pools, going on bike rides, or even attending schools during flu season.  There are inherent risks to each decision.    This pandemic has taken that normal analysis and made it, and everything, more difficult. 

I encourage you to analyze each factor, and then attempt to decrease risk to a point that it feels worth it to take the small risk.   We all have hope kids can play and learn together, as zoom schooling has limitations, but who knows if kids will be able to keep 3 feet apart while in school, or keep their masks on all the time, so there is going to be some risk for both the child, as well as the teacher or adults at home. As the situation improves, I feel comfortable nudging you forward, but I can’t say anything is risk-free.

I also empathize with how difficult it can be to try to work from home with young children, and your financial stability as well as mental health needs to factor in to this decision as well.   Daycares, and schools are open, and at some point may not even enforce masks. While it will be a difficult decision on whether to send your child or not, but as the numbers go down (as of 2/22) I am strongly encouraging kids to once again play and interact and enjoy life. It has been two years now, and the mental health effects on children are well-documented as well as the need for social interaction and play. So I am, despite some risks, nudging parents towards allowing for a somewhat normal childhood feel, despite ever present risk.

We as pediatricians are following the lead of public health officials and elected politicians, and yet this will also be a decision that just needs to be made by each family individually.  I have many parents that won’t send their children to a program even when they are open, and many others that can’t wait to send them the second they are open, or have been enrolled in daycare or schools the entire year.  Neither family is “wrong”. 

In my official role, I can’t say anything is 100 percent safe.  In my official role, I can’t say it’s without risk to attend school, or safe to socialize with others.  But I can say that socialization and emotional health factors in, and that kids do deserve to engage and play and learn together.  Those are very important factors.  But the health and well-being of your family, and those at risk that you may engage with also are a very important factor. 

I apologize that I won’t be able to help more in the decisions.   Part of it of course is that I am “on the record”, and on the record I can’t promise anything is 100 percent safe.  Germs can spread despite masks and vaccinations, so I can’t “clear” or “approve” a decision to travel, or meet family or friends, or have Dr. G officially agree with any decision really.  But I do encourage you to analyze risk, and do what feels right in your heart and mind. 

There are many wonderful resources out there, including the cdc.gov, and a plethora of wonderful articles where 133 of the top epidemiologists all weigh in on these types of decisions.  And guess what – many of them disagree with each other!  The best scientists can take the same data and make different recommendations, just as mayors and governors may disagree with each other. 

So please know that you are doing your best.  You are spending hours weighing all your options, just as my wife and I are with our two kids, and we are all in this together, trying to get through an unprecedented world-wide pandemic.